Trump’s Tariffs and the New World Order: What It Means for People, Planet, and Profit

When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025, the global signal was unmistakable. A flat 10% tariff on all imports to the US, coupled with even steeper duties on critical sectors like steel, aluminium, and automotive, reshapes the rules of global trade. While this move is framed as a bid to boost American manufacturing, the ripple effects are far wider — economically, socially, and environmentally.

As we stand at this pivotal moment, it’s worth unpacking the impact through the lens of the triple bottom line: People, Planet, and Profit.

People: Winners, Losers, and Uneven Impacts

The first and perhaps most sensitive consequence of Trump’s tariffs lies in their human cost.

Job creation... but not everywhere.

In theory, the tariffs aim to bring manufacturing back to the US. And they might succeed, to some extent: global corporations have already pledged close to $3 trillion in investment to reshore operations. If these plans materialise, they could revive certain American industrial towns.

However, this gain is unlikely to offset broader global disruptions. For many countries, especially those heavily reliant on exports to the US, the tariffs threaten significant job losses. Emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, which have positioned themselves as cost-effective suppliers of intermediate goods, are at risk of losing market access.

According to World Bank data, around 41% of exports from low-income countries flow into developed markets like the US. A flat tariff immediately erodes their competitiveness, potentially wiping out thousands of jobs in vulnerable regions.

Research from Dr. Emily Jones, at Oxford University’s Global Economic Governance Programme, has highlighted that measures like these often hit the poorest countries hardest, as they have the least flexibility to absorb shocks or pivot their trade relationships.

UK households under pressure

Closer to home, British workers and consumers are not spared. Sectors like aerospace, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, key UK exports to the US, will feel the pinch. Reduced export demand could lead to job cuts and slowed wage growth in affected industries.

Meanwhile, supply chain disruptions and currency volatility may drive inflationary pressures, raising costs for UK consumers already grappling with a higher cost of living.

Planet: Localisation’s Double-Edged Sword

On the surface, there is an argument that Trump’s tariff-fuelled localisation could benefit the planet. Shortening supply chains reduces transport emissions. Locally produced goods tend to have a smaller carbon footprint than those shipped across continents.

The International Transport Forum estimates that international freight accounts for roughly 8% of global carbon emissions. Cutting long-distance trade routes could, in theory, lower this.

But the picture is more complex.

Green tech at risk

The UK’s green transition is deeply intertwined with global supply chains. Solar panels, wind turbines, and EV batteries rely on specialised materials and technologies that come from a handful of countries, often moving through US-dominated trade routes. With tariffs inflating costs, UK renewable energy projects could stall or become less economically attractive.

Analysis by Professor Michael Grubb of UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources has consistently highlighted the risks of global trade disputes slowing the deployment of clean energy, given that green tech supply chains are uniquely international.

The danger is that, in an effort to reshore manufacturing, countries inadvertently delay the very technologies needed to combat climate change.

Carbon leakage

Another risk is carbon leakage which happens when production moves from countries with higher environmental standards to those with laxer regulations, leading to higher overall emissions.

As UK manufacturers face reduced competitiveness, some might offshore production to cheaper regions, effectively exporting emissions rather than cutting them. Paradoxically, localisation could unintentionally drive up global emissions if it prioritises economic speed over green standards.

Profit: Short-Term Pain, Uncertain Gains

At its core, Trump’s tariff strategy is a profit play, repositioning the US as the world’s industrial powerhouse. For the global economy, the outlook is turbulent.

UK businesses brace for impact

The UK, as an open economy, stands particularly exposed. With the US as its second-largest trading partner (worth over £170 billion annually), the 10% tariff and sector-specific hikes strike directly at the heart of British industry.

Forecasts from the LSE Centre for Economic Performance and Warwick Business School predict a GDP contraction of up to 0.4% over the next year purely from reduced export demand.

And it’s not just direct exports. The UK’s role in global supply chains, supplying parts for US manufacturing, faces a knock-on decline. Companies like Rolls-Royce, providing critical components for aviation, can see demand soften as US firms reassess their procurement strategies.

Bargaining power diminishes

The tariffs also place the UK in a weaker position in future trade negotiations. Hopes for a favourable UK-US trade deal diminish under a hardened US protectionist stance. In the near term, UK firms must weather market volatility, inflationary pressures, and supply chain recalibrations. Dr. Meredith Crowley of Cambridge has emphasised in her research that open economies like the UK are particularly vulnerable to global trade tensions, often feeling the squeeze when larger powers engage in economic rivalry.

What Comes Next? Opportunity in Disruption

Despite the storm clouds, there is a potential silver lining. Some economists argue that this moment could catalyse a new phase of UK industrial strategy.

By accelerating investment in domestic green manufacturing, like solar, wind, and EVs, the UK could reduce its reliance on vulnerable global supply chains.

Commentary by Professor Dieter Helm of Oxford University has pointed to global protectionism as a possible catalyst for the UK’s green industrial strategy, provided it is handled strategically. We now have a chance to put his point to the test.

Such a pivot would require bold policy interventions: green subsidies, domestic industrial incentives, and a rethinking of the UK's trade relationships beyond traditional partners.

A Crossroads for People, Planet, and Profit

Trump’s tariffs mark more than a policy shift; they signal a structural change in the global economy. For people, the risks are unevenly distributed, with poorer nations and vulnerable sectors hardest hit. For the planet, localisation could cut freight emissions but risks delaying critical green transitions and exporting carbon elsewhere. For profit, short-term losses are clear, but long-term gains depend on who can adapt quickest to the new landscape.

The world is entering uncharted territory. Whether this moment becomes a fracture or a foundation for a more sustainable and resilient future will depend on the choices made in boardrooms and government halls in the months to come.